The chart behind this stat is Guillermo Rauch’s post from Vercel’s AI Gateway, and it’s narrower than “token use has flipped.” It covers one gateway’s traffic, measured by token volume, and the 78.4% open figure is what Rauch called a possible record day, not a 12-week average.
Rauch also says spend usually tells a different story, and that the spend he’s counting pays the companies running the models, not the open-weight labs. So the shift is real on at least one big router. Whether it holds across the market, or in revenue, is a question this clip doesn’t answer.
But when you start to look at the impact of open source, we had a couple of viral charts come out 70 80% of the token usage are those dark tokens I mentioned six months ago here on this pod that are not tracked, but some people can track them on routers. Those dark open source tokens are now the majority of tokens. And can I just give you a stat on that J Cal? Because sure, what you just said is really important. But there's a stat that I think in in the last 12 weeks alone, token use has flipped from 8020 closed verse open. Yes, 8020 open verse closed. Yes, I don't think we've ever seen in 12 weeks. I don't think we've ever seen a tidal wave of you can start it's the versus like in the history of all technology markets. We've never seen anything like this. Yeah, that is the biggest risk factor for anthropic is they were first out the gate to get the enterprise on on AI to build tools and whatnot. But as this market shifts to open source and open weights, boom, here it is right here. Look at this. This is the versatile chart that went viral this. So this is 12 weeks. Oh my crazy. If you look at this chart, this I think is what blows the lid off the door on what needs to go into these s one
