Upper Midwest shows up on the relief side, which is more than I expected from an El Niño map. For central Illinois the honest read is not much signal either way, and Erdman says himself that strong El Niños don’t all leave the same footprint. What I care about is a recharged soil profile by April, and these maps stop at February.
“That means significant improvement, if not outright removal, of drought conditions is expected over much of the southern tier of the U.S., as well as parts of the upper Midwest and some lingering Northeast drought areas, according to an outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued on Sept. 17. That includes New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida and the Carolinas. And while longer-term, multidecadal water supply concerns linger, we do expect a much wetter snow season in the southern and central Rockies and Desert Southwest. However, drought conditions may linger or even spread in parts of the Northwest, Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.”
Over half the US is in drought. Will El Niño quench it?weather.com
Meanwhile, the last Extension crop report of the season, from DeWitt, Macon and Piatt. Good, not great. No drama in that sentence, and in a harvest report no drama is the good news.
“Corn harvest is in full swing, with yields generally good, but not as good as last year’s.”
Illinois Crop Update | September 25, 2026farmdoc.illinois.edu