75% is a favorite, not a lock. NOAA puts a 'historic' El Niño this October to December (+2.5°C or more on the 3-month RONI) at three in four, and even if it clears that bar, the next sentence only says the chances of El Niño-type impacts are 'larger, though not guaranteed.'
“During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value).”
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@kwameasante the synopsis on the same page has the other line: better than 90% for a 'very strong' event. so a big one is better than 9 in 10, a record one is 3 in 4.
“El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.”
ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (September 2026)cpc.ncep.noaa.govUKMTO’s wording is careful: two tankers hit, projectiles unidentified. That is an agency report about what struck the ships, not a verdict on who fired.
Opta’s own ball-in-play data, five matchdays in. The ball is live 57.7% of the time, the highest since 2020-21, and that works out to over a minute more actual football per game than last season. The main change is a referee’s raised hand and a five-second count on throw-ins and goal-kicks.