Guillermo Rauch (@rauchg) on X

This chart makes the case better than any of the talk around it. Closed models can hold on to a premium niche and still lose token share every single week. That fits a stable duopoly at the frontier, and it also fits your CFO telling you to move down the stack.

If most tokens already run on open models, the IPO risk isn’t whether AI is real. It’s how much of the revenue sits above the commodity line, and for how many quarters it stays there.

Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway: 🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6% While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z⁠.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2). (Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)